After Chinese government drastically revised the family planning policy from “one family one child” to “couples are encouraged to have two children each” in December 2015, has Chinese families’ intention of having more than one child changed?
Data from CTR’s CNRS-TGi survey showed that the willingness has been increasing steadily among urban families. (Note)
In the full year of 2012, for those families whose surveyed member was between 20 and 44 year old and have one and only one child between 0 – 14 years old, 2.23% of them were “expecting a new baby born or preparing to get pregnant within one year”. The ratio has been constantly going upward ever since. In the survey period between October 2015 and March 2016, the proportion rose to 4.2%, an increase of 88%.
* Base sample definition: Chinese urban families whose member surveyed was between 20 and 44 years old and they have one and only one child between 0 and 14 years old.
In China, many people attributes young couples’ low intention of having more than one child, or having a child at all, to the lack of money and time/energy to look after young babies. Our data somehow validates this hypothesis.
We can divide all Chinese urban families into four levels based on their income level, each accounting for (from lowest to highest) 40%, 30%, 20% and 10%. The data from October, 2015 and March, 2016 showed that the most eager tier is the second highest tier where 5.7% of one-child families are preparing for a second child; followed by 5.07% in the highest tier. The second-baby intention for second lowest tier families was only 3.21% and it was even lower at 1.3% for the lowest tier.
The size of family is another factor influencing families’ decisions on second baby. For the three-member core families, only 2.92% was planning for a second child in the next year, it rose to 4.33% for four-member families while it was highest for five-and-above families at 6.84%.
* There was not enough samples for 2-member families, ie., single parent families.
As the family size is about to expand, these families have strong intentions to buy cars and property.
Between October 2015 and March 2016, 30% of urban families surveyed nationwide said “we plan to buy property in the next 10 years”, but for the families expecting their second child, the ratio was 64%. At the same time, another 12% quasi-two children families “bought/sold property in the previous year” and 44% of all quasi-two children families “redecorated their current property in the previous year”.
These families are very likely to buy new cars as well. Nationwide, 28% of urban families plan to buy car(s) in the following year. The ratio was 51% for one child families and even higher at 60% for quasi-two children families.
Families expecting their second child are more interested in SUVs (43%) than any other body types, followed by sedans (31%) and hatchback cars (13%). Multi-purpose vehicles, though more popular among this consumer segment (5%) than one-child family and average urban family (both at 4%), is way less considered in the pecking order.
It might be explained by these families’ plan for future family car portfolio. Though 46% of quasi-two children families plan to replace their current car, still many of them plan to “buy another car” (33%) or “buy our first car” (19%).
* “Others” might refer to sell the family’s current car and buy two or more cars.
Note: These data comes from CNRS-TGi database analysis, not directly surveying one-child families about their intention to have another child. The definition for “quasi-two children family” is that the family member surveyed is between 20 – 44 year old, and there is one and only one 0 – 14 year old child in the family, and the family is expecting to “have a new baby or get pregnant in the next year”.
CNRS-TGi covers 60 cities with an annual sample size of nearly 100,000, representing a population of 180 million urban residents. CNRS-TGi provides single source continuous data of tier 1-4 city residents in China on their product consumption, media habits and lifestyles.